Convective Outlook: Sat 11 Apr 2020 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 Apr 2020
ISSUED 07:11 UTC Sat 11 Apr 2020
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Some early elevated convection may be occur near NE / E Scotland and NE England first thing on Saturday morning, but this should soon clear to the North Sea. Otherwise, attention turns to a subtle shortwave slowly drifting ESE-wards across the British Isles on Saturday, while skies across much of central and southern Britain should be relatively clear given a dry airmass with depth (aside from some thin cirrus). This should allow fairly unimpeded surface heating of the relatively warm, moist low-level airmass to occur (dewpoints 11-14C), yielding 400-800 J/kg CAPE. Sea breezes will develop, leading to zones of confluence and convergence inland (most pronounced from Devon across to London). Given the slack surface pattern, other low-level convergence boundaries are also likely, such as close to the English/Welsh border.