Convective Outlook: Sun 30 Apr 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 30 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 01 May 2017

ISSUED 21:31 UTC Sat 29 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Sunday, medium level instability will be present close to the cold front as a narrow plume of high ThetaW advects northwards from Iberia on the forward side of the disrupting trough. The exact interaction between this trough disruption and surface features remains a little uncertain, but it is plausible some embedded elevated convection may occur close to the front, perhaps deep enough to produce some sporadic lightning.


On the rear-side of the cold front, surface troughing will lead to low-level wind convergence over SW England and SW Ireland, which may serve the focus for some isolated surface-based convection to occur on Sunday afternoon and early evening. Too much uncertainty exists over this potential and subsequent coverage, but given some reasonable DLS there may be scope to upgrade either of these areas to SLGT should confidence/coverage increase.