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When necessary, we issue convective outlooks for the British Isles for up to the next five days to highlight any convective potential that may exist. Since the service is voluntary, there may be occasions where forecasts are not issued, or issued later than normal. If no forecast is issued it must be assumed that this is due to a lack of forecaster availability, and that convective weather is still possible. One notable period each year when this is more likely to occur is during the months of May and June when our forecasters are likely to be storm chasing in the United States.

It must be noted that our products are intended to be used as a tool for highlighting areas that may exhibit some convective potential and do not serve as warnings; it is the responsibility of the Met Office to warn the public of severe weather.


Convective Outlooks

NO FORECAST

Today

Valid: 06:00 UTC Sat 21 Dec 2024 - 05:59 UTC Sun 22 Dec 2024
NO FORECAST

Tomorrow

Valid: 06:00 UTC Sun 22 Dec 2024 - 05:59 UTC Mon 23 Dec 2024
NO FORECAST

Day 3

Valid: 06:00 UTC Mon 23 Dec 2024 - 05:59 UTC Tue 24 Dec 2024
NO FORECAST

Day 4

Valid: 06:00 UTC Tue 24 Dec 2024 - 05:59 UTC Wed 25 Dec 2024
NO FORECAST

Day 5

Valid: 06:00 UTC Wed 25 Dec 2024 - 05:59 UTC Thu 26 Dec 2024


Research

With a strong passion and interest in meteorology, specifically convective processes, our team of forecasters are actively involved in some of the latest research in convective forecasting in the British Isles, and how to improve forecasting technique and accuracy through better understanding of the convective climatology of Britain.

Paper A climatology of convective available potential energy in Great Britain
D. M. Holley, S. R. Dorling, C. J. Steele and N. Earl
International Journal of Climatology, April 2014
Deep moist convection (DMC) requires three ingredients: instability, moisture and lift. One measure that incorporates two of these, instability and moisture, is convective available potential energy (CAPE). A 10-year climatology of CAPE over Great Britain is presented covering the period 1 June 2002–31 May 2012, based on a 9-km grid spacing implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with two-way interactive nesting. Read more...