Convective Outlook: Fri 19 May 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 May 2017

ISSUED 04:07 UTC Fri 19 May 2017

ISSUED BY: null

An upper trough will continue to slowly progress from west to east across the British Isles. Lapse rates will decrease across Ireland, but a weak occlusion could just trigger a few heavy showers with a low end lightning risk during the mid afternoon (mainly across central/southern Ireland)


However, instability and lapse rates will increase across the low risk area in southwestern Britain as the upper trough moves near. CAPE of around 500 j/kg and surface to 500mb lapses reaching into the low 40s will help to trigger scattered heavy showers. It is expected that a few of these showers will contain some small hail and typically infrequent lightning as storms will generally be pulse variety with very little shear present.