Convective Outlook: Mon 19 Jun 2017
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017

ISSUED 19:44 UTC Sun 18 Jun 2017


Under broad upper ridging on Monday, strong surface heating will yield CAPE values of 1,000-1,500 Jkg-1 with dewpoints typically in the mid-high teens Celsius. The mid-level (~600mb) nose is less-pronounced compared with Sunday, especially the farther north one goes as heights aloft are relatively lower, especially later in the day, which suggests an increased likelihood for deep convection to occur - though probably not widespread enough to warrant a SLGT for now. Some reasonable shear too with favourable hodographs allowing perhaps some organisation.

Forecast profiles are quite dry, but given some low-level wind convergence a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon and evening hours. Any storms that do manage to form would be a capable of producing frequent lightning - but the main risk being local flash flooding (given slow storm motion and PWAT of 30-35mm, suggesting 30-40mm may fall in a short space of time) and large hail locally up to 2.0cm in diameter. This setup is then borderline SVR, and may require an upgrade if confidence improves.