Convective Outlook: Fri 30 Jun 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 30 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 Jul 2017

ISSUED 18:20 UTC Thu 29 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper vortex will be centred over France on Friday, with cool air aloft providing an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates - the best lapse rates mainly over France, but just clipping SE England. A decaying band of showers over the English Channel will pivot inland across SE England during the morning, probably no more than a marked zone of wind convergence, but this then providing the focus for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop inland in response to diurnal heating. 


Slow storm motion will bring the risk of some localised flash flooding, with scope for 20-30mm to fall in a short space of time. The area most at risk is Kent and East Sussex, though if cloud breaks are a little more widespread to allow sufficient insolation, then the risk could extend as far west as Exeter and perhaps into Essex / south Hertfordshire. Slack flow and low-level convergence may allow a few waterspouts / tornadoes to occur.