Convective Outlook: Wed 09 Aug 2017
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 09 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 10 Aug 2017

ISSUED 04:57 UTC Wed 09 Aug 2017


Ahead of a southward-moving cold front, a slightly higher WBPT airmass combined with forcing from aloft and surface convergence will provide the trigger for a couple of lines of heavy showers or thunderstorms - particularly in a zone from E Suffolk into E Essex, and a separate area in Kent to East Sussex. Saturated profiles and marginal instability suggests lightning activity might not be that widespread, but a low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight the region at risk. Main impacts will be localised flooding from prolonged torrential downpours - in fact, many models suggest 50-70mm will be possible locally over parts of East Anglia. Funnel clouds and weak tornadoes will once again be possible with this activity.

A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible elsewhere embedded within the frontal rain, while scattered showers are likely to develop to the west of this front, over the West Midlands down to Devon/Somerset in particular.