Convective Outlook: Mon 14 Aug 2017
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED 08:49 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 08:49 UTC SLGT introduced to Channel Islands and SE England given risk of medium-level instability release during early hours of Tuesday morning as approaching upper trough engages with plume over France. Embedded lightning also possible within frontal zone from SW England / Wales late Monday afternoon/early evening, migrating NE-wards through the evening and night across Midlands - N England - S/SE Scotland, but confidence and coverage not high enough to warrant an upgrade for now...

A complex frontal system will move out of Ireland into western and central parts of Britain during the day and overnight. There is a signal for a split-cold front in the warm sector ahead of the main surface front, and this could aid in the development of embedded convection within the larger-scale frontal rain. In turn a broad isolated  area has been created with the lightning risk translating north and eastwards through the zone during Monday and Monday night. It should also be noted cold air advection aloft may help to generate some post-frontal convection across western and central Ireland later in the afternoon and this could produce some small isolated convective cells with the potential of a few lightning strikes and perhaps some small hail.