Convective Outlook: Fri 18 Aug 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 18 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 19 Aug 2017

ISSUED 22:35 UTC Thu 17 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad longwave trough will swing eastwards across the British Isles on Friday, accompanied by notably steep lapse rates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form fairly widely given widespread deep instability, with areas of longer spells of rain associated with organised frontal features also.


Hard to be more specific at areas with the best potential, though a favourable overlap of instability and shear will exist across S Wales - S Midlands / Cen S Eng - East Anglia / SE England which would suggest this region at a higher risk of lightning activity than environs. Perhaps another focus over Yorks/Lincs where steepest lapse rates will exist by the afternoon. Quite dry forecast profiles suggest showers will be fairly well-scattered, though steering flow resulting with ultimately a fairly widespread coverage. Hail locally up to 2.0cm in diameter will be possible with the strongest cells, along with strong, gusty winds.