Convective Outlook: Sun 20 Aug 2017

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 20 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 21 Aug 2017

ISSUED 20:17 UTC Sat 19 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Approaching Atlantic frontal system on Sunday, containing the remnants of Hurricane Gert, will be characterised by advection of a high WBPT airmass northeastwards across Ireland and western Britain. Very moist low- and mid-levels with saturated profiles will result in marginal instability and a very low risk of lightning, but some forcing aloft could release some elevated instability capable of producing some isolated / sporadic lightning - this perhaps more likely over the Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland during the evening and/or overnight, though in reality very little (if any) may occur. Main risk would be from localised flooding from any heavy downpours courtesy of embedded convective elements.