Convective Outlook: Mon 21 Aug 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 21 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 22 Aug 2017

ISSUED 20:45 UTC Sun 20 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Another day with very moist low- and mid-levels with saturated profiles resulting in marginal instability and a very low risk of lightning, but some forcing aloft could release some elevated instability capable of producing some isolated / sporadic lightning - this perhaps most likely over the Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland, though in reality very little (if any) may occur. Main risk would be from localised flooding from any heavy downpours courtesy of embedded convective elements. Chance of some surface-based convection developing late afternoon / early evening within the warm sector should any sufficient gaps in the cloud cover develop over Ireland - given some decent shear, very low cloud bases and backed surface winds, this could produce a tornado (but is considered a very low probability of occurring).