Convective Outlook: Fri 15 Sep 2017

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 15 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 16 Sep 2017

ISSUED 19:24 UTC Thu 14 Sep 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A large positively tilted trough will continue to provide unstable air across much of the British Isles, but rising heights are noted across Ireland on the eastern edge of high pressure that will slowly move into Britain later in the weekend and early next week. A large isolated risk area is expected on Friday, although it is difficult to pinpoint to which areas are at higher risk for lightning. Given Thursdays limited lightning and with forecast surface to 500mb lapse rates slightly lower for Friday, lightning is again expected to sporadic. CAPE values are a little higher (500-600j/kg) across SW and SCen England therefore the risk may be slightly elevated there.