Convective Outlook: Sun 17 Sep 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 17 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 18 Sep 2017

ISSUED 07:38 UTC Sun 17 Sep 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper vortex centred over NW Germany on Sunday will provide another showery day at least to England and Wales, though in general with quite dry air aloft showers should be a bit more isolated than on Saturday, but still sufficiently deep for some isolated or sporadic lightning - moreso towards East Anglia and SE England where elements of low-level convergence may aid forced ascent such as Essex-Herts-London drifting south into Kent-Surrey etc, and hence a SLGT has been issued here.


Overnight, focus then turns to the North Sea and Norfolk / Suffolk (and later perhaps Essex and Kent) as the cold pool aloft expands, and instability increases in response to warm SSTs. Showers and thunderstorms will probably become more numerous offshore overnight, these then drifting inland at times - and hence a SLGT has been issued.

Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter will be possible with the most intense cells, with perhaps a few funnel clouds and minor surface water flooding.