Convective Outlook: Sun 15 Oct 2017

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Oct 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Oct 2017

ISSUED 20:53 UTC Sun 15 Oct 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Observed and forecast soundings depict a well-developed elevated mixed layer that will cover much of England and Wales by the end of tonight. Radar and satellite imagery highlight destabilisation of the mid-levels is already occurring as incredibly steep mid-level lapse rates begin to move gradually north, ahead of what is left of Hurricane Ophelia, with a few recent elevated showers and thunderstorms over SW England. Given a large area of potential, it is possible a few more showers/thunderstorms could develop through the remainder of the night almost anywhere within the LOW threat level - although the risk in any one place is relatively low. Very dry air just above the surface should limit rainfall accumulations somewhat.