Convective Outlook: Tue 02 Jan 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 02 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 03 Jan 2018

ISSUED 23:21 UTC Mon 01 Jan 2018


Main interest during this period is the cold front and following post-frontal environment where deep convection is likely. Frontal wave eventually evolving into a closed low will promote WAA ahead of a well-forced cold front. In a strongly-sheared environment with marginal instability, elements of line convection seem likely along the surface cold front during the evening hours, capable of producing a spell of squally rain, strong gusts of wind and perhaps a tornado given backed low-level winds.

Lightning activity may be limited somewhat with this feature given limited convective depth, but as colder air aloft overspreads SSTs, so showers that follow the cold front will have greater convective depths and better potential to produce some lightning, especially offshore and close to western and southern coasts. Once more, strong gusts of wind and small hail will be possible with this activity.