Convective Outlook: Fri 05 Jan 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 05 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 06 Jan 2018

ISSUED 21:13 UTC Thu 04 Jan 2018


Beneath a sharpening upper trough, multiple small-scale areas of low pressure add to a rather complicated picture with various contorted fronts bringing showery bursts of rain in places, but getting the exact location of these features correct remains difficult, let alone their tendency to meander about through the day on Friday. Nonetheless, the main trend is for heights to build from the NW with time, forcing any frontal features to gradually slip away to the south as profiles stabilise from the north.

Cold air aloft atop SSTs (and diurnal heating inland) creates an environment with modestly steep lapse rates, with some sporadic lightning possible almost anywhere - but more especially close to the coast or over open waters, particularly towards southern and western areas. A messy mix of dynamic and convective precipitation will exist, some capable of small hail and perhaps gusty winds - though the wind threat primarily associated with small lows drifting through at times. A few funnels or perhaps a weak waterspout will be possible.