Convective Outlook: Sat 10 Mar 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 10 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 11 Mar 2018

ISSUED 09:05 UTC Sat 10 Mar 2018


On the forward side of an upper trough to the west of Biscay, a notably warm, moist airmass will cover southern Britain for a time on Saturday as a warm front lifts north, this relatively high WBPT airmass then shunted eastwards by a cold front this evening. Some elements of mid-level instability will be possible with some of this frontal precipitation, though in general near-saturated profiles and weak CAPE suggests the lightning risk is quite low in any one location.

Overnight, mid-level lapse rates will steepen as relatively warm, moist low-level airmass begins to advect north towards southern Britain and southern Ireland. A frontal wave will pass close to SE England at the very end of the night into Sunday morning, perhaps containing some embedded elevated convection, but perhaps a greater risk is SW Ireland - though in both cases, lightning coverage is probably below SLGT thresholds.