Convective Outlook: Sun 08 Apr 2018
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 08 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 09 Apr 2018

ISSUED 08:46 UTC Sun 08 Apr 2018


UPDATE 08:46 UTC LOW threat level added to SE England for this evening - a build-up of some marginal instability is possible over NE France this afternoon to the east of the frontal zone, with the potential for some showers (perhaps weakly-electrified) to drift close to or over SE England during the evening hours

Sharp upper trough will continue to disrupt over Iberia on Sunday, while a piece of energy drifts northeast across Ireland to Scotland. This will be associated with cool air aloft and hence relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Diurnal heating, orographic forcing and low-level wind convergence will aid in the development of several scattered showers, some perhaps weakly-electrified.

Deep convection potential may be contaminated somewhat by an area of cloud and showery rain moving into southern Ireland from the Celtic Sea. Given lack of any significant shear, messy pulse-type convection is most likely and hence any lightning will be rather sporadic and not particularly widespread - therefore reluctant to issue a SLGT for now.