Convective Outlook: Sat 14 Apr 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 14 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 15 Apr 2018

ISSUED 18:55 UTC Fri 13 Apr 2018


Diurnal heating and subtle low-level convergence may be sufficient to allow an isolated shower or two to develop during the late afternoon / evening hours on Saturday. Given marginal instability, dry forecast profiles and very little shear, any convection that manages to develop will likely struggle to grow in height, and so the lightning risk is considered very low (almost below our 5% threshold).

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop over NE France on Saturday afternoon, which may slowly drift across the English Channel during the evening hours - while sufficient weakening is expected as they encounter much colder SSTs, subtle forcing as a shortwave drifts NE may allow some showery bursts of rain to drift over SE England, albeit with a rather low risk of lightning. Hence parts of Kent / Sussex / coastal Essex have also been included in the LOW threat area.