Convective Outlook: Sun 15 Apr 2018

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Apr 2018

ISSUED 14:00 UTC Sat 14 Apr 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will approach from the Atlantic on Sunday, cold pool aloft serving to steepen mid-level lapse rates - primarily over Ireland. A couple of occlusion/trough features will provide the focus for bands of showery rain moving NE-wards through the day,  turning increasingly convective in nature in response to some diurnal heating. Some sporadic / isolated lightning is possible from the strongest cells - particular focus is given to the north Midlands into Yorkshire / Lincolnshire (and perhaps Norfolk) where low-level convergence may enhance some forced ascent, but lightning coverage is not expected to be significant enough to upgrade to SLGT.