Convective Outlook: Tue 17 Apr 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 17 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 18 Apr 2018

ISSUED 20:12 UTC Mon 16 Apr 2018


On the forward side of the large Atlantic upper trough, cool mid-levels will help generate some marginal instability in response to diurnal heating. Forecast profiles look capped at about 400mb by very dry air above, and this cap gradually lowers to nearer 600mb by evening (especially further south across Ireland).

Hence, while there is potential for some deep convection and a few heavy showers, in combination with diurnal heating and the passage of a shortwave trough, the potential depth of convection will be gradually reducing during the afternoon hours. Strong DLS may be enough to compensate for marginal CAPE to produce a few lightning strikes (but questionable). Some organisation of cells into linear features seems likely, with the potential to produce some strong gusts of wind - in fact the strongest cells may exhibit some supercell characteristics with perhaps some hail.