Remnant elevated convection associated with destabilising plume over the North Sea could bring a high-based thunderstorms over or to the east of Shetland on Sunday morning - low confidence on lightning activity precludes the issuance of a SLGT.

Ahead of a SE-moving cold front, diurnal heating will allow 500-800 J/kg CAPE to be generated. Forecast profiles suggest a cap will exist around 950mb, but provided there is sufficient insolation combined with breeze convergence then a few heavy showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the 2nd half of the afternoon. 40-50kts (fairly uni-directional) DLS would allow cells to become well-organised, capable of producing hail up to 1.5cm in diameter and local wind gusts 40-50mph.

Greatest uncertainty exists over whether the cap can be eroded, with several model solutions not particularly keen on convective initiation - for now a low-end SLGT has been issued and trends will be monitored. Broad consensus would place Norfolk and NE Suffolk at greatest risk.