Convective Outlook: Tue 22 May 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 22 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 23 May 2018

ISSUED 20:22 UTC Mon 21 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper forcing will be weaker on Tuesday compared with Monday, with forecast profiles generally warmer and drier as a result. This will largely limit any deep convection to those areas where pronounced sea breeze convergence can develop, or orographic forcing can play a role, hence LOW threat levels issued generally for coastal counties. A few isolated heavy showers / weak thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and early evening hours in response to diurnal heating and low-level convergence, the mean upper flow then steering these showers to the S or SW.


A low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight the area with the best multi-model consensus - though some uncertainty as to how electrically-active such cells will be (assuming they do develop) given very little shear and weaker instability than on Monday. Dorset is another area where there is some limited multi-model support.

There is also potential for elements of elevated convection from mid-level instability over East Anglia and SE England, both early Tuesday and again on Tuesday night into early Wednesday.