Convective Outlook: Sat 02 Jun 2018
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018

ISSUED 21:27 UTC Fri 01 Jun 2018


Scattered, and in places, widespread thunderstorms are expected across northern Britain and Ireland on Saturday...

A very weak synoptic pattern will continue to be present over the British Isles bringing light winds and a warm, humid surface airmass. Showers will develop in response to surface heating (temps >19C) during late morning and into the afternoon across much of northern and eastern England, Scotland and Ireland. SBCAPE values around and in excess of 1,000 J/kg will generate thunderstorms, which will likely be particularly widespread across southern Scotland and north-central Ireland, producing frequent lightning. Like previous days, shear values will be virtually non-existant, therefore showers will pulse variety and updrafts will be fairly short lived. The primary threat will be flash flooding with PWAT values around 30mm in Scotland and Ireland, and into the mid-30s mm across E England and E Anglia. This will lead to 1-2 hour rainfall totals once again in excess of 50mm in places. Thunderstorms in the east will likely develop along weak convergence boundaries and drift slowly eastwards, while the steering flow in Scotland and Ireland will take the showers slowly westwards once they develop.