|Convective Outlook: Fri 15 Jun 2018|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 15 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 16 Jun 2018
ISSUED 18:47 UTC Thu 14 Jun 2018br> br>
ISSUED BY: Chris
The slight risk of thunderstorms across Ireland on Friday night...
A small low will push east northeastwards across Ireland from Friday evening into the early hours of Saturday. Strong shear (DLS >50kts), and steepening lapse rates will likely produce some organised lines of heavy showers and some thunderstorms. These will be capable of producing some some gusts up to around 50mph and small hail. It should be stressed that lack of instability means this is a low-end slight risk at the moment.
A weak short-wave trough will move through the flow across Scotland during the day on Friday, and this will steepen lapse-rates slightly allowing for some weak instability (200 J/kg CAPE). Convective showers are quite likely, but the lightning risk will remain small.