Convective Outlook: Tue 19 Jun 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 Jun 2018

ISSUED 20:04 UTC Mon 18 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

Main focus during this forecast period will be late afternoon and through the evening / overnight associated with the frontal wave running from Ireland into Scotland / N England. Increasing baroclinicity as a high ThetaW airmass approaches from the Atlantic will result in fairly saturated profiles with periods of heavy rain running across parts of Ireland into Scotland and N England. Rain will be particularly prolonged on exposed high ground in these areas.


On the southern flank, some pockets of drier air are possible in the mid-levels, with marginal elevated instability. Some convective elements are possible as a result, especially given a strongly-sheared environment, though the true depth of such convection may be too shallow (especially given the fairly saturated nature of the column) for much in the way of lightning.