Convective Outlook: Tue 03 Jul 2018

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 03 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 04 Jul 2018

ISSUED 19:16 UTC Mon 02 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low west of Biscay will elongate and extend northwards towards Celtic Sea during Tuesday. Portions of the high ThetaW airmass over France will be drawn northwards across the English Channel into southern England / south Wales, and overnight into southern Republic of Ireland. Subtle forcing will allow some elevated convection to develop, although rather marginal instability suggests lightning would only be isolated at best, and given dry air in the low-levels much of any rain will evaporate before reaching the ground. Slightly deeper instability and moisture exists over SW England and so Devon/Cornwall would generally have a slightly higher chance for some sporadic lightning should any showers develop - but confidence is not high enough to warrant a SLGT.