Convective Outlook: Fri 06 Jul 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 06 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 07 Jul 2018

ISSUED 19:32 UTC Thu 05 Jul 2018


An upper ridge will continue to build through Friday leading to increased atmospheric stability and limiting the potential for convection / thunderstorms across the British Isles. 

That stated, some weak CAPE (~200 J/kg) combined with strong surface heating (approaching 30C in places) and weak convergence boundaries will lead to a very low end ISOL risk. Hi-res models agree that Kent is once again a favoured spot for a few isolated, high based showers to develop. However, forecast soundings show warming mid-layers thus lightning potential is considered a low risk (perhaps less than 10%). An ISOL risk is also issued for further west in southern England, higher ground of Wales and southern and eastern parts of Ireland. In those areas, strong heating combined with a little orographic forcing could help generate a few showers, but again lightning is unlikely. In any case, shear is almost non-existant so updrafts will be short-lived.