Convective Outlook: Wed 11 Jul 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 Jul 2018

ISSUED 04:08 UTC Wed 11 Jul 2018


The remnants of a shortwave trough will slide slowly southeastwards across the Irish Sea during Wednesday, towards Wales by Thursday morning. Subtle forcing with this feature will encourage showery outbreaks of rain to develop in the vicinity of this shortwave throughout this forecast period. Some convective interest may exist across England and Wales this afternoon and evening with diurnal heating, breeze convergence and orographic forcing aiding the development of convective cloud - and while a shower or two is possible, forecast soundings exhibit a notable warm nose at 700mb, which will inhibit any sufficient depth for lightning activity - as such, no threat levels have been issued. 

Moistening of vertical profiles through the night will likely see further showery bursts of rain developing over parts of Wales / Midlands - but with fairly saturated profiles and meagre instability, lightning potential is considered very low.