Convective Outlook: Thu 12 Jul 2018 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
Subtly falling heights and moistening with depth will provide the potential for some deep convection on Thursday. A few scattered heavy showers are likely in response to diurnal heating, low-level convergence and orographic forcing - and given very little steering flow, slow storm-motion could produce some locally high rainfall totals. With regards to lightning potential, instability is a little limited with very skinny CAPE. Rather saturated looking profiles and fairly weak shear casts some uncertainty as to whether much lightning will actually occur. As a result, have refrained from issuing a SLGT for now - though parts of Wales / SW England / W Country may require an upgrade if confidence improves. Main threats will be local surface water issues, especially considering existing very dry ground with dust/dirt deposits on roads likely to make surfaces rather slippery when wet.
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 Jul 2018
ISSUED 08:47 UTC Thu 12 Jul 2018
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
UPDATE 08:47 UTC No changes to the forecast for now - 00z observed and forecast soundings continue to suggest skinny CAPE which may be limited in height somewhat, and as such lightning may be rather sporadic / isolated - best potential over Wales where an upgrade to SLGT may still be possible. Given notable low-level convergence and favourable low-level wind fields, combined with low cloud bases, there could be several reports of funnel clouds today