Ireland, S and E Scotland...

A sharpening upper trough in the Atlantic to the west of the British Isles and a slowly advancing surface cold front will push eastwards across northern Britain. The frontal boundary will move into a highly sheared environment (40-50kt of deep layer shear) and could allow for some convective elements (line segments) within the frontal zone. If this occurs updrafts could be sufficiently sustained to produce some isolated lightning strikes, although the overall risk remains low. 

N and E England...

Two prospects for convection will occur within this low risk area. The first will be carried over from Sunday night across NCen / NE England into Monday morning, where elevated convection may produce a few lightning strikes (10% chance or less) before 12z. 

The second risk will be from surface based convection during the afternoon and early evening through eastern England. MUCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg will develop into the afternoon. Forecast profiles are still relatively dry aloft with residual ridging in place, and shear remains weak, however high-res models indicate there is a small risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two from Newcastle south to about The Wash. If any showers in this zone do develop in the afternoon, they could produce some brief heavier downpours and a few minutes of higher intensity lightning before decaying.