Convective Outlook: Wed 15 Aug 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 15 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 16 Aug 2018

ISSUED 21:11 UTC Tue 14 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Subtle forcing aloft may be enough to release pockets of marginal mid-level instability, and hence a risk of isolated lightning, along the cold front as it continues to slide SE-wards from Irish Sea / NW Wales / N England initially to Lincs - Dorset by Thursday morning. Most areas of England and Wales will remain lightning-free, however. Strong deep layer shear could produce some elements of line convection at times.


Some model guidance suggests the potential for showery rain and perhaps some embedded isolated lightning during Wednesday evening over southern Scotland, running NE-wards across eastern Scotland and out to the North Sea.

Otherwise the main risk of lightning during this forecast period will be western Scotland (Highlands and islands) and western portions of Ireland, especially later on Wednesday night as steepening lapse rates overspread the area courtesy of cold air aloft associated with an upper trough, atop warm SSTs. Skinny CAPE, weakening shear and limited convective depth prevents an upgrade to SLGT for now.