The cold front will likely exhibit split front characteristics, with most of the frontal rain from medium/high level cloud, followed by a narrow shallow moist zone before the surface front moves through (marked by a change of dewpoint from 15-16C to 7-8C). A dry intrusion atop this shallow moist layer, in a strongly-sheared environment, may allow a few showers to develop, perhaps organised into line segments. However, the depth of this convection will likely be too shallow for lightning activity - but may be accompanied by some gusty winds and rather turbulent, low-hanging cloud bases.

Elsewhere a much better environment exists for lightning activity, as an upper trough swings progressively eastwards. Cold air aloft atop warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland will steepen lapse rates and generate 300-800 J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across central and northern parts of the British Isles, some capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. The SLGT may need extending into eastern parts of the Republic of Ireland if the forecast capping at 600mb proves to be weaker.