Convective Outlook: Wed 22 Aug 2018

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 22 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 23 Aug 2018

ISSUED 17:03 UTC Tue 21 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Both very low risks. Isolated lightning will be possible on Wednesday afternoon / early evening along or just ahead of the cold front as subtle forcing aloft may be enough to release some marginal mid-level instability. Behind the front, cold air aloft atop warm SSTs will generate some marginal instability, with scattered showers likely over NW Scotland by Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday. Forecast profiles look rather dry and capped, with any convection possibly fairly shallow in depth - and hence it seems unlikely there will be much (if any) lightning activity. Best potential, albeit still rather low, will exist over Shetland.