Convective Outlook: Fri 12 Oct 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 12 Oct 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 13 Oct 2018

ISSUED 20:08 UTC Thu 11 Oct 2018


As a deep low runs northwards to the west of the British Isles, a short window exists during Friday morning of marginal CAPE and very strong shear, which will allow some heavy, squally showers to affect parts of NW Republic of Ireland to W Scotland - with some sporadic lightning possible (but coverage probably not high enough to warrant a SLGT).

By this stage, a moist conveyor will become established across western Britain, with persistent orographic rainfall. On the eastern flank, elements of mid-level instability release will be possible, especially during the early hours of Saturday. Forecast profiles look rather saturated, which coupled with marginal instability will limit buoyancy - but given the strongly sheared environment, a few sporadic lightning strikes may be possible over SW England and S Wales during this period.