Convective Outlook: Sun 14 Oct 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 14 Oct 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 15 Oct 2018

ISSUED 08:48 UTC Sun 14 Oct 2018


Frontal zone will linger across England for much of this forecast period, with various pulses of heavy precipitation running northeastwards along the front at times. On the eastern flank, elements of embedded mid-level convection will bring the risk of some isolated / sporadic lightning.

During the evening and night hours, the flow begins to buckle and back more to the SE, increasing the WAA from the nearby Continent. This will tend to push the frontal zone back to the west a little, while also encouraging better mid-level instability release over the English Channel, with the chance of some elevated thunderstorms developing here and then running NNE-wards across SE England and East Anglia.

Some uncertainty exists both over the available instability (profiles are rather saturated which will limit buoyancy and reduce lightning potential) and also over the exact location of where thunderstorms may occur which will be heavily dependent on the shape of the surface low and position of the frontal zone. In reality, there will probably be a few heavy showers with limited lightning activity. For now, a low-end SLGT has been introduced where the best multi-model consensus exists, but this may need to be shifted adjusted depending on trends later today.