Convective Outlook: Sat 27 Oct 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 27 Oct 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 28 Oct 2018

ISSUED 16:56 UTC Sat 27 Oct 2018


UPDATE 16:56 UTC Recent sferics over The Wash associated with a region of maximised low-level convergence, and may continue to feed heavier precipitation across The Fens into north Cambridgeshire over the next hour or two - a low-end SLGT has been issued here. Elsewhere, a couple of other low-end SLGTs have been introduced to try and better highlight areas where some lightning activity is more likely to occur overnight

Arctic airmass continues to affect the British Isles, atop warm SSTs and resulting in steep lapse rates and several hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will continue to develop over seas and affect adjacent land areas exposed to the northerly-turn-northeasterly wind, several producing small hail and sporadic lightning. Organised troughs may allow showers to develop more widely inland for a time.

Difficult to pinpoint specific areas with a higher risk of lightning, except for acknowledging the risk will be greatest near coasts and over open water. Deeper instability will exist over the North Sea during Saturday daytime, shifting to the English Channel overnight, which may suggest lightning could become a little more widespread here - but confidence on coverage is not currently high enough to upgrade to SLGT.