Convective Outlook: Sun 28 Oct 2018 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 28 Oct 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 29 Oct 2018
ISSUED 17:31 UTC Sat 27 Oct 2018
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Cold airmass atop warm SSTs continues to generate showers over the North Sea and English Channel, these then drifting largely west/southwestwards courtesy of an east/northeasterly steering flow. The deepest instability will exist during the first half of the forecast period, especially near the Channel Isles where low-level convergence may provide enough additional forcing for sporadic lightning - as such, a low-end SLGT has been introduced.
Elsewhere, lightning will be rather isolated, and increasingly less-likely as the airmass gradually warms and instability weakens, leading to showers becoming more isolated with time.