Convective Outlook: Sun 11 Nov 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Nov 2018

ISSUED 21:16 UTC Sat 10 Nov 2018


Broad upper low continues to slowly migrate from the Atlantic towards Ireland, the associated cold mid/upper-levels atop warm SSTs steepening lapse rates and generating 400-800 J/kg CAPE. Once again numerous showers will develop over open seas, then transferring inland to exposed southern and western coastal counties, and occasionally well-inland as organised troughs / occlusions swing through.

Given lack of any notable shear, both SLGTs should be treated as low-end to highlight areas where periods of better forcing may exist - the main interest for S / SE England will be on Sunday morning, whereas for the Irish Sea this is mainly Sunday evening and overnight. In both cases, the most intense cells may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter, accompanied by gusty winds. Showers training over the same areas could produce some localised flooding.