VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 29 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 30 Nov 2018

ISSUED 23:09 UTC Wed 28 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low will approach NW Scotland during this forecast period, with much of the British Isles under the influence of the forward side of the larger-scale upper trough. Cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs will generate 400-700 J/kg CAPE, with numerous showers expected then being driven inland by the strong southwesterly steering winds. Given strong shear and dry air in the mid/upper levels, this may be enough to compensate to produce some sporadic lightning - most likely over open waters and adjacent coasts, but a few strikes will also be possible farther inland. A couple of low-end SLGTs have been introduced - Irish/Celtic Sea for late afternoon into the evening hours, and the English Channel for late evening through the early hours of Friday.