Convective Outlook: Fri 30 Nov 2018 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 30 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 Dec 2018
ISSUED 21:06 UTC Thu 29 Nov 2018
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper low north of Scotland, with cold mid/upper levels atop relatively warm SSTs. A few hundred J/kg CAPE will be available, with numerous showers once again developing on Friday over open seas, and moving well-inland courtesy of both strong W/SW-ly steering winds and occasional organised troughs embedded in the flow.
Convective depth will become increasingly restricted across southern Britain as heights rise ahead of the next Atlantic disturbance - consequently most central/southern areas are considered very low (i.e. near the 5% threshold), with the best environment for some sporadic lightning likely over the eastern English Channel at the very beginning of the forecast period (a low-end SLGT here), then largely restricted to northern Britain from Friday afternoon onwards.