Convective Outlook: Mon 03 Dec 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 03 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 04 Dec 2018

ISSUED 20:44 UTC Sun 02 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad westerly flow continues to affect the British Isles on Monday, with an embedded shortwave sliding eastwards from the Republic of Ireland to southern Britain during the daytime. The associated cooling aloft, and increased upper forcing, will drive clusters of showers eastwards across the highlighted areas, sometimes organised into a distinct wrap-around feature.


Strong shear will likely lead to some linear segments at times, capable of producing gusty winds. CAPE is a little weak, a few hundred J/kg CAPE, but the shear component and stronger forcing may be enough to produce a few lightning strikes - particular focus perhaps over the southern half of Wales on Monday morning. An isolated tornado may be possible.