Convective Outlook: Thu 06 Dec 2018 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 06 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 07 Dec 2018
ISSUED 19:58 UTC Wed 05 Dec 2018
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Main interest during this forecast period is during the early hours of Friday morning, as the Atlantic upper trough swings towards Ireland / western Scotland, the associated cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will develop over open seas, moving inland on the strong southwesterly steering flow. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible from the most intense cells.
Elsewhere, strong shear may allow some linear segments to develop along / behind the cold front on Thursday night, but weak instability and rather saturated profiles suggest little (if any) lightning.