Convective Outlook: Fri 07 Dec 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 07 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 08 Dec 2018

ISSUED 20:11 UTC Thu 06 Dec 2018


Upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Friday. On the forward side, strong shear and forcing will promote elements of line convection on the rear side of the cold front precipitation envelope as it moves across England during the morning hours. Squally winds and heavy rain will be possible locally, but saturated profiles and weak instability suggests the risk of lightning is fairly low (but non-zero). 

The post-frontal environment, already established across Ireland and western Scotland at the beginning of the forecast period, characterised by cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE, will then spread across all parts through the course of the day. Numerous showers will develop over open seas, moving inland on the strong west-turn-northwesterly steering flow. A few isolated lightning strikes and small hail will be possible from the most intense cells.