Convective Outlook: Sun 16 Dec 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 16 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 17 Dec 2018

ISSUED 11:40 UTC Sun 16 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 11:40 UTC Low-end SLGT removed since the risk of lightning is generally considered sub-30% in most areas. While some sporadic lightning strikes remain possible through this forecast period, it is unlikely to be widespread enough to warrant maintaining the SLGT

A mid-level cold pool will spread across the British Isles on Sunday, steepening lapse rates and generating several hundred J/kg CAPE in response to relatively warm SSTs. Showers will develop over open seas, then driven inland by the southwesterly steering flow. Hail and sporadic lightning will be possible with the most intense cells.

A more organised band of showery rain, driven by stronger upper forcing will run eastwards from southern Ireland in the morning, to Wales / SW England during Sunday afternoon, reaching SE England / East Anglia through the evening. This increased forcing, combined with existing instability, may encourage a few sporadic lightning strikes.