Convective Outlook: Mon 21 Jan 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 21 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 22 Jan 2019

ISSUED 16:37 UTC Sun 20 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

As the Atlantic upper trough disrupts and digs towards BeNeLux, a strongly-forced cold front will migrate eastwards across the British Isles. Strong shear, marked surface wind veer and a tongue of relatively high WBPT air will aid in the development of line segments, capable of squally bursts of rain and strong gusts of wind. However, weak instability and rather saturated profiles suggests lightning activity will be very isolated (if any). 


The post-frontal environment on Monday night is then characterised by cold air advecting across relatively warm seas. This will generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE, with numerous wintry showers developing over open seas and then pushed inland by both strong northwesterly steering flow and also embedded troughs in the flow aiding greater organisation. Despite limited instability, the strongly-sheared environment on the rear side of the upper trough (particularly over Ireland) should aid in some organisations of cells to produce sporadic lightning, gusty winds and small hail (amongst pre-existing rain, sleet and snow).