Convective Outlook: Tue 29 Jan 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 29 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 30 Jan 2019

ISSUED 22:05 UTC Mon 28 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharpening upper trough will continue to dig towards northern France through the forecast period, engaging an area of low pressure over northern France and resulting in notable deepening. North of the surface low, a sympathetic trough is expected to develop underneath the upper trough axis, this bringing the threat of some rain, sleet and snow to parts of England and Wales. Ahead of this feature, slight warm air advection and upper forcing will encourage showery outbreaks of rain to develop (primarily from medium-level cloud) over SE England and then E Anglia, with a very low risk of an isolated lightning strike.


Elsewhere, the upper trough will be associated with very cold air atop relatively warm SSTs, creating an environment with marked steep lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous wintry showers will develop over open waters and then drift inland to many northern and western parts of the British Isles, with a few sporadic lightning strikes possible.