Convective Outlook: Wed 06 Feb 2019
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 06 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 07 Feb 2019

ISSUED 20:35 UTC Tue 05 Feb 2019


A complex pattern will exist on Wednesday, with a succession of shortwaves running northeastwards across the British Isles on the forward side of the larger-scale Atlantic upper trough. This will bring renewed pulses of increasingly dynamic rainfall, interspersed with more convective, showery precipitation. Some lightning strikes will be possible, given a few hundred J/kg CAPE and notable shear at times. 

Some interest is given to the developing frontal system that moves across Ireland during the evening hours, and then Britain on Wednesday night - given the upper forcing, weak CAPE, marked low-level wind veer and reasonable shear, some line segments are possible along the trailing cold front capable of strong gusts of wind and brief spells of heavy rain. The main overlap of favourable ingredients primarily occurs over the Celtic Sea during the evening hours, before weakening as the cold front moves inland. However, depending on the eventual shape of the cold front, this may also affect portions of SE Ireland, and perhaps extreme western extremities of England and Wales.