Convective Outlook: Fri 08 Feb 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 Feb 2019

ISSUED 16:56 UTC Thu 07 Feb 2019


Upper ridge initially over the British Isles on Friday will retreat eastwards as an upper low slides across NW Scotland. At the surface, a deepening area of low pressure approaching NW Scotland will push a frontal system across the British Isles. The cold front will clear Ireland by mid-morning, and then migrating eastwards across Britain during the remainder of Friday daytime. An overlap of upper forcing, weak CAPE and strong shear suggests that line segments may develop, capable of producing a brief period of heavy rain and squally winds - this risk generally south of a line from Merseyside-The Wash, where an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

The post-frontal environment is then characterised by cold mid-levels atop relatively warm seas, developing numerous showers over open waters which will move well-inland courtesy of strong steering winds. Some sporadic lightning, gusty winds and small hail will be possible from these showers, hence a broad LOW threat level.