Convective Outlook: Sat 16 Feb 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 16 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 17 Feb 2019
ISSUED 20:27 UTC Fri 15 Feb 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
On Saturday night an active cold front will push into western Ireland from the Atlantic, weakening as it does so. While instability will be weak, the strongly-sheared environment may encourage some embedded line convection to occur along the front.
The post-frontal environment late on Saturday night is then characterised by cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates. Showers are likely to affect far W / SW Ireland late in the night, though probably limited somewhat in depth given the real cold pool aloft will still be largely over the Atlantic during this forecast period. Nonetheless, strong shear may be enough to compensate to produce one or two isolated lightning strikes.